Tag Archives: COVID-19

Country progress to 9 May in controlling COVID-19 epidemics

I downloaded the latest COVID-19 data for reported deaths and confirmed cases from Johns Hopkins this morning to see whether the data supports the relaxation of social isolation that is starting to happen in many countries. The USA now has … Continue reading

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COVID-19 projections and reality

On 27th April, I posted some short-run projections of COVID-19 cases and deaths. The plots below show how the daily new cases per million population and deaths per million population compare with reality (at least the confirmed case rates and … Continue reading

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COVID-19 short-run projections

Purely statistical predictions of future trends in COVID-19 deaths or cases, even including predictive covariates, have been unable to make sensible forecasts that are not highly sensitive to slight additions of data. The only useful models have been the more … Continue reading

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Critics agree that IHME COVID-19 projection model is flawed

I downloaded the latest IHME update of its COVID-19 projections yesterday to do another evaluation. Their projections still look very problematic. Other disease modellers and epidemiologists are coming to the same conclusion. An article just published in Statnews was much … Continue reading

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How useful are IHME projections of the coronavirus pandemic?

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), based at the University of Washington in Seattle, caused considerable alarm on 7 April when it released projections of Covid-19 deaths which predicted total deaths for the UK would be the highest … Continue reading

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How does population age structure affect overall case fatality ratios for COVID-19?

The first graph shows coronavirus deaths in Italy up to 26 March 2020 by sex and age. The overall case fatality rate for lab confirmed cases is 11.1% and 70% of deaths are male (closer to 80% below age 80, … Continue reading

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COVID-19 growth rates by country

Nice new site http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/ that plots time trends in cases and deaths, total numbers and rates per million population. The time axis is days since 100+ cases/deaths or days since 1 case/death per million population. I’ve attached screenshots of cases/million … Continue reading

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