Category Archives: Projections

State-level trends and levels of child mortality in India 2000-2015

I’ve been involved for nearly 20 years in the estimation of global, regional and national causes of child death under the age of 5, in collaboration with academic researchers and a number of WHO technical departments (new-estimates-of-the-causes-of-child-death-under-age-5).  This collaboration has … Continue reading

Posted in Global health trends, Projections | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Are humans heating up the world?

I was in Australia over Christmas-New Year period and the southern parts of the country were sweltering in a heat wave. Yesterday, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued its 2018 climate statement, revealing a record breaking run of rising temperatures. … Continue reading

Posted in Projections | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

NEW PROJECTIONS OF MORTALITY AND CAUSES OF DEATH TO YEAR 2060

Back in 2006, I published a paper in PLoS Medicine with detailed projections of deaths by age, sex and cause for all regions of the world, from year 2002 to 2030 (https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.0030442).  That paper has proved very popular, with over … Continue reading

Posted in Global health trends, Projections, World Health Organization | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Are countries on track to meet the global targets for noncommunicable diseases?

More than half of all countries are predicted to fail to reach the UN target to reduce premature deaths from cancers, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease, and diabetes by 2030, according to a new analysis published by the NCD Countdown … Continue reading

Posted in Global health trends, Projections | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Future life expectancy in 35 industrialized countries: projections to year 2030

Today, the Lancet published our study projecting life expectancy trends to 2030 for 35 countries: http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(16)32381-9/abstract Life expectancy at birth is projected to exceed 90 years for Korean women in 2030, a level of average life expectancy many thought impossible … Continue reading

Posted in Global health trends, Projections | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Child deaths in 2015: much accomplished, but more to do

In 2000, world leaders agreed on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). MDG 4 called for a two-thirds reduction in the under-5 mortality rate between 1990 and 2015. Today the UN Interagency Group on Child Mortality Estimation (UN-IGME), which my team … Continue reading

Posted in Global health trends, Projections, World Health Organization | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Ending preventable child deaths by 2030

Trend data for causes of child death are crucial to inform priorities for improving child survival by and beyond 2015. With academic collaborators at Johns Hopkins University, London School of Hygiene and Tropical medicine and Edinburgh University, we have just … Continue reading

Posted in Global health trends, Projections, World Health Organization | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments