Category Archives: Projections

COVID-19 projections and reality

Posted on May 6, 2020 by

On 27th April, I posted some short-run projections of COVID-19 cases and deaths. The plots below show how the daily new cases per million population and deaths per million population compare with reality (at least the confirmed case rates and … Continue reading →

Posted in Global health trends, Projections | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

COVID-19 short-run projections

Posted on April 27, 2020 by

Purely statistical predictions of future trends in COVID-19 deaths or cases, even including predictive covariates, have been unable to make sensible forecasts that are not highly sensitive to slight additions of data. The only useful models have been the more … Continue reading →

Posted in Global health trends, Projections | Tagged , , , , | 6 Comments

Critics agree that IHME COVID-19 projection model is flawed

Posted on April 18, 2020 by

I downloaded the latest IHME update of its COVID-19 projections yesterday to do another evaluation. Their projections still look very problematic. Other disease modellers and epidemiologists are coming to the same conclusion. An article just published in Statnews was much … Continue reading →

Posted in Global health trends, Projections | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

How useful are IHME projections of the coronavirus pandemic?

Posted on April 14, 2020 by

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), based at the University of Washington in Seattle, caused considerable alarm on 7 April when it released projections of Covid-19 deaths which predicted total deaths for the UK would be the highest … Continue reading →

Posted in Global health trends, Projections | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

State-level trends and levels of child mortality in India 2000-2015

Posted on May 20, 2019 by

I’ve been involved for nearly 20 years in the estimation of global, regional and national causes of child death under the age of 5, in collaboration with academic researchers and a number of WHO technical departments (new-estimates-of-the-causes-of-child-death-under-age-5).  This collaboration has … Continue reading →

Posted in Global health trends, Projections | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Are humans heating up the world?

Posted on January 10, 2019 by

I was in Australia over Christmas-New Year period and the southern parts of the country were sweltering in a heat wave. Yesterday, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued its 2018 climate statement, revealing a record breaking run of rising temperatures. … Continue reading →

Posted in Projections | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

NEW PROJECTIONS OF MORTALITY AND CAUSES OF DEATH TO YEAR 2060

Posted on November 14, 2018 by

Back in 2006, I published a paper in PLoS Medicine with detailed projections of deaths by age, sex and cause for all regions of the world, from year 2002 to 2030 (https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.0030442).  That paper has proved very popular, with over … Continue reading →

Posted in Global health trends, Projections, World Health Organization | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment