Category Archives: Projections

NEW PROJECTIONS OF MORTALITY AND CAUSES OF DEATH TO YEAR 2060

Posted on November 14, 2018 by colinmathers

Back in 2006, I published a paper in PLoS Medicine with detailed projections of deaths by age, sex and cause for all regions of the world, from year 2002 to 2030 (https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.0030442).  That paper has proved very popular, with over … Continue reading →

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Are countries on track to meet the global targets for noncommunicable diseases?

Posted on September 21, 2018 by colinmathers

More than half of all countries are predicted to fail to reach the UN target to reduce premature deaths from cancers, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease, and diabetes by 2030, according to a new analysis published by the NCD Countdown … Continue reading →

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Future life expectancy in 35 industrialized countries: projections to year 2030

Posted on February 22, 2017 by colinmathers

Today, the Lancet published our study projecting life expectancy trends to 2030 for 35 countries: http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(16)32381-9/abstract Life expectancy at birth is projected to exceed 90 years for Korean women in 2030, a level of average life expectancy many thought impossible … Continue reading →

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Child deaths in 2015: much accomplished, but more to do

Posted on September 9, 2015 by colinmathers

In 2000, world leaders agreed on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). MDG 4 called for a two-thirds reduction in the under-5 mortality rate between 1990 and 2015. Today the UN Interagency Group on Child Mortality Estimation (UN-IGME), which my team … Continue reading →

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Ending preventable child deaths by 2030

Posted on October 3, 2014 by colinmathers

Trend data for causes of child death are crucial to inform priorities for improving child survival by and beyond 2015. With academic collaborators at Johns Hopkins University, London School of Hygiene and Tropical medicine and Edinburgh University, we have just … Continue reading →

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Premature death can be reduced by 40% in 20 years!

Posted on September 22, 2014 by colinmathers

A paper by 16 international co-authors published last Friday in the Lancet, suggests that, with sustained international efforts, the number of premature deaths could be reduced by 40% over the next two decades (2010 – 2030), halving under – 50 … Continue reading →

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Reducing six modifiable risk factors could prevent 37 million deaths from chronic diseases over 15 years.

Posted on May 3, 2014 by colinmathers

Reducing or curbing just six modifiable risk factors—tobacco use, harmful alcohol use, salt intake, high blood pressure and blood sugar, and obesity—to globally-agreed target levels could prevent more than 37 million premature deaths over 15 years, from the four main … Continue reading →

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Global trends and projections for causes of death: implications for longevity

Posted on May 2, 2014 by colinmathers

Since 1990, global life expectancy has increased 3 years per decade. Life expectancy at older ages for both sexes has also increased, particularly since 1970, in many developed countries. This trend is most striking in data from my own country … Continue reading →

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Road deaths in developing countries projected to nearly double by 2030

Posted on January 27, 2014 by colinmathers

WHO estimates that the number of deaths globally will reach nearly 2m a year by 2030, up from 1.3m now, according to estimates and projections I prepared for the Global Status Report on Road Safety 2013 with the Violence and … Continue reading →

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