Tag Archives: pandemic

Country progress to 9 May in controlling COVID-19 epidemics

Posted on May 10, 2020 by

I downloaded the latest COVID-19 data for reported deaths and confirmed cases from Johns Hopkins this morning to see whether the data supports the relaxation of social isolation that is starting to happen in many countries. The USA now has … Continue reading →

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COVID-19 projections and reality

Posted on May 6, 2020 by

On 27th April, I posted some short-run projections of COVID-19 cases and deaths. The plots below show how the daily new cases per million population and deaths per million population compare with reality (at least the confirmed case rates and … Continue reading →

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COVID-19 short-run projections

Posted on April 27, 2020 by

Purely statistical predictions of future trends in COVID-19 deaths or cases, even including predictive covariates, have been unable to make sensible forecasts that are not highly sensitive to slight additions of data. The only useful models have been the more … Continue reading →

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Critics agree that IHME COVID-19 projection model is flawed

Posted on April 18, 2020 by

I downloaded the latest IHME update of its COVID-19 projections yesterday to do another evaluation. Their projections still look very problematic. Other disease modellers and epidemiologists are coming to the same conclusion. An article just published in Statnews was much … Continue reading →

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How useful are IHME projections of the coronavirus pandemic?

Posted on April 14, 2020 by

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), based at the University of Washington in Seattle, caused considerable alarm on 7 April when it released projections of Covid-19 deaths which predicted total deaths for the UK would be the highest … Continue reading →

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