-
Recent Posts
- Fundamentalist values, culture and religion October 18, 2020
- Global trends in religiosity and atheism 1980 to 2020 September 30, 2020
- Are the Lancet authorship criteria adequate? September 27, 2020
- Religiosity and atheism in 2020 September 5, 2020
- The second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic August 28, 2020
Recent Comments
Archives
- October 2020 (1)
- September 2020 (3)
- August 2020 (6)
- July 2020 (3)
- June 2020 (2)
- May 2020 (4)
- April 2020 (4)
- March 2020 (4)
- October 2019 (1)
- August 2019 (1)
- June 2019 (1)
- May 2019 (2)
- January 2019 (1)
- December 2018 (2)
- November 2018 (1)
- September 2018 (1)
- July 2018 (1)
- June 2018 (1)
- December 2017 (2)
- October 2017 (2)
- September 2017 (1)
- August 2017 (1)
- May 2017 (2)
- February 2017 (1)
- November 2016 (3)
- May 2016 (2)
- November 2015 (1)
- October 2015 (1)
- September 2015 (1)
- August 2015 (2)
- May 2015 (2)
- April 2015 (1)
- March 2015 (2)
- January 2015 (1)
- November 2014 (1)
- October 2014 (1)
- September 2014 (4)
- August 2014 (2)
- July 2014 (1)
- June 2014 (4)
- May 2014 (8)
- January 2014 (5)
Categories
- Global health trends (68)
- Projections (17)
- Publications (5)
- Uncategorized (19)
- World Health Organization (41)
Tags
- atheism
- Australia
- blood pressure
- cancer
- causes of death
- child mortality
- children
- citation indices
- Clarivate
- climate change
- comparative risk assessment
- confirmed case rates
- conflict deaths
- coronavirus
- country comparisons
- COVID-19
- culture map
- Dean Jamison
- Disease Control Priorities
- Einstein number
- emancipative values
- Erdos number
- European Values Survey
- gender
- gender inequality
- Global Burden of Disease
- global health estimates
- global health statistics
- global warming
- H-index
- Highly Cited Researchers
- homicide
- hypertension
- IHME
- India
- Inglehart
- irreligion
- Keeling Curve
- life expectancy
- lifetable indicators
- longevity
- malaria
- maternal mortality
- Millenium Development Goals
- Million Death Study
- NCD
- Noncommunicable diseases
- obesity
- overweight
- pandemic
- Prabhat Jha
- premature mortality
- preventable deaths
- Projections
- religiosity
- road injury
- science denial
- sex
- suicide
- sustainable development goals
- Switzerland
- telomeres
- tobacco smoking
- traditional secular values
- Tropical countries
- Tropics
- underweight
- Universal health coverage
- USA
- values
- violence
- war
- Welzel
- World Health Organization
- World Values Survey
Tag Archives: pandemic
The second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic
Today, I took another look at the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic using data on confirmed cases downloaded from the Johns Hopkins University CCSE data repository. This post focuses mostly on western European countries, with a few others like … Continue reading
Posted in Global health trends
Tagged Australia, confirmed case rates, coronavirus, country comparisons, COVID-19, pandemic, Switzerland, USA
1 Comment
Covid-19: which countries are succeeding and not succeeding?
There is now sufficient data on social distancing, lockdown, and other measures that researchers are starting to assess the effectiveness of these measures. The July 4th edition of The Economist has an article summarizing what is becoming clear. Extensive testing … Continue reading
An out-of-control pandemic in most world regions
I downloaded the Covid-19 data up to 5 July from the JHU Github today and plotted smoothed new cases per day (average over last 7 days) as rates per million population by world region. The dramatic difference in trajectories for … Continue reading
Posted in Global health trends
Tagged confirmed case rates, coronavirus, COVID-19, pandemic
2 Comments
Two different pandemics: the USA and Europe
The trajectories of COVID-19 have been dramatically different in the USA and Europe. Currently there are close to 30,000 new cases per day in the USA, compared with around 3,000 per day in the European Union (and around 20 per … Continue reading
Posted in Global health trends
Tagged coronavirus, COVID-19, European Union, pandemic, Switzerland, United States, USA
Leave a comment
Imperial study estimates 3.1 million deaths averted by the lockdown in Europe
I’ve stopped doing my own graphs to check trends for coronavirus. The 91-divoc.com website has added daily cases and daily deaths time series as well as moving 7-day average time trends to its visualizations, and has plots for countries for … Continue reading
Posted in Global health trends
Tagged coronavirus, country comparisons, COVID-19, Europe, pandemic, Switzerland
Leave a comment
Machine learning projection model for Covid-19
Youyang Gu, an independent data scientist, has created a statistical projection model for Covid-19 (https://covid19-projections.com/) that uses machine learning techniques to fit a classical SEIR infectious disease model to the data for daily confirmed cases and deaths, taking into account … Continue reading
Posted in Global health trends, Projections
Tagged coronavirus, COVID-19, machine learning, pandemic, Projections, SEIR model
2 Comments
Country progress to 9 May in controlling COVID-19 epidemics
I downloaded the latest COVID-19 data for reported deaths and confirmed cases from Johns Hopkins this morning to see whether the data supports the relaxation of social isolation that is starting to happen in many countries. The USA now has … Continue reading
Posted in Global health trends
Tagged confirmed case rates, coronavirus, COVID-19, pandemic
3 Comments
COVID-19 projections and reality
On 27th April, I posted some short-run projections of COVID-19 cases and deaths. The plots below show how the daily new cases per million population and deaths per million population compare with reality (at least the confirmed case rates and … Continue reading
Posted in Global health trends, Projections
Tagged coronavirus, COVID-19, IHME, pandemic, Projections
Leave a comment
COVID-19 short-run projections
Purely statistical predictions of future trends in COVID-19 deaths or cases, even including predictive covariates, have been unable to make sensible forecasts that are not highly sensitive to slight additions of data. The only useful models have been the more … Continue reading
Posted in Global health trends, Projections
Tagged coronavirus, COVID-19, IHME, pandemic, Projections
6 Comments
Critics agree that IHME COVID-19 projection model is flawed
I downloaded the latest IHME update of its COVID-19 projections yesterday to do another evaluation. Their projections still look very problematic. Other disease modellers and epidemiologists are coming to the same conclusion. An article just published in Statnews was much … Continue reading
Posted in Global health trends, Projections
Tagged coronavirus, COVID-19, IHME, pandemic, Projections
2 Comments