Tag Archives: pandemic

The second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic

Posted on August 28, 2020 by colinmathers

Today, I took another look at the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic using data on confirmed cases downloaded from the Johns Hopkins University CCSE data repository. This post focuses mostly on western European countries, with a few others like … Continue reading →

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Covid-19: which countries are succeeding and not succeeding?

Posted on July 7, 2020 by colinmathers

There is now sufficient data on social distancing, lockdown, and other measures that researchers are starting to assess the effectiveness of these measures. The July 4th edition of The Economist has an article summarizing what is becoming clear.  Extensive testing … Continue reading →

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An out-of-control pandemic in most world regions

Posted on July 6, 2020 by colinmathers

I downloaded the Covid-19 data up to 5 July from the JHU Github today and plotted smoothed new cases per day (average over last 7 days) as rates per million population by world region. The dramatic difference in trajectories for … Continue reading →

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Two different pandemics: the USA and Europe

Posted on June 24, 2020 by colinmathers

The trajectories of COVID-19 have been dramatically different in the USA and Europe. Currently there are close to 30,000 new cases per day in the USA, compared with around 3,000 per day in the European Union (and around 20 per … Continue reading →

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Imperial study estimates 3.1 million deaths averted by the lockdown in Europe

Posted on June 10, 2020 by colinmathers

I’ve stopped doing my own graphs to check trends for coronavirus. The 91-divoc.com website has added daily cases and daily deaths time series as well as moving 7-day average time trends to its visualizations, and has plots for countries for … Continue reading →

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Machine learning projection model for Covid-19

Posted on May 31, 2020 by colinmathers

Youyang Gu, an independent data scientist, has created a statistical projection model for Covid-19 (https://covid19-projections.com/) that uses machine learning techniques to fit a classical SEIR infectious disease model to the data for daily confirmed cases and deaths, taking into account … Continue reading →

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Country progress to 9 May in controlling COVID-19 epidemics

Posted on May 10, 2020 by colinmathers

I downloaded the latest COVID-19 data for reported deaths and confirmed cases from Johns Hopkins this morning to see whether the data supports the relaxation of social isolation that is starting to happen in many countries. The USA now has … Continue reading →

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COVID-19 projections and reality

Posted on May 6, 2020 by colinmathers

On 27th April, I posted some short-run projections of COVID-19 cases and deaths. The plots below show how the daily new cases per million population and deaths per million population compare with reality (at least the confirmed case rates and … Continue reading →

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COVID-19 short-run projections

Posted on April 27, 2020 by colinmathers

Purely statistical predictions of future trends in COVID-19 deaths or cases, even including predictive covariates, have been unable to make sensible forecasts that are not highly sensitive to slight additions of data. The only useful models have been the more … Continue reading →

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Critics agree that IHME COVID-19 projection model is flawed

Posted on April 18, 2020 by colinmathers

I downloaded the latest IHME update of its COVID-19 projections yesterday to do another evaluation. Their projections still look very problematic. Other disease modellers and epidemiologists are coming to the same conclusion. An article just published in Statnews was much … Continue reading →

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