Tag Archives: Projections

New estimates of total global COVID-19 deaths from IHME

Posted on May 10, 2021 by colinmathers

A few days ago, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) released estimates of total COVID-19 deaths for countries based on comparisons of total deaths from all causes during the pandemic period with the expected total deaths based on … Continue reading →

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Machine learning projection model for Covid-19

Posted on May 31, 2020 by colinmathers

Youyang Gu, an independent data scientist, has created a statistical projection model for Covid-19 (https://covid19-projections.com/) that uses machine learning techniques to fit a classical SEIR infectious disease model to the data for daily confirmed cases and deaths, taking into account … Continue reading →

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COVID-19 projections and reality

Posted on May 6, 2020 by colinmathers

On 27th April, I posted some short-run projections of COVID-19 cases and deaths. The plots below show how the daily new cases per million population and deaths per million population compare with reality (at least the confirmed case rates and … Continue reading →

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COVID-19 short-run projections

Posted on April 27, 2020 by colinmathers

Purely statistical predictions of future trends in COVID-19 deaths or cases, even including predictive covariates, have been unable to make sensible forecasts that are not highly sensitive to slight additions of data. The only useful models have been the more … Continue reading →

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Critics agree that IHME COVID-19 projection model is flawed

Posted on April 18, 2020 by colinmathers

I downloaded the latest IHME update of its COVID-19 projections yesterday to do another evaluation. Their projections still look very problematic. Other disease modellers and epidemiologists are coming to the same conclusion. An article just published in Statnews was much … Continue reading →

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How useful are IHME projections of the coronavirus pandemic?

Posted on April 14, 2020 by colinmathers

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), based at the University of Washington in Seattle, caused considerable alarm on 7 April when it released projections of Covid-19 deaths which predicted total deaths for the UK would be the highest … Continue reading →

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NEW PROJECTIONS OF MORTALITY AND CAUSES OF DEATH TO YEAR 2060

Posted on November 14, 2018 by colinmathers

Back in 2006, I published a paper in PLoS Medicine with detailed projections of deaths by age, sex and cause for all regions of the world, from year 2002 to 2030 (https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.0030442).  That paper has proved very popular, with over … Continue reading →

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Future life expectancy in 35 industrialized countries: projections to year 2030

Posted on February 22, 2017 by colinmathers

Today, the Lancet published our study projecting life expectancy trends to 2030 for 35 countries: http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(16)32381-9/abstract Life expectancy at birth is projected to exceed 90 years for Korean women in 2030, a level of average life expectancy many thought impossible … Continue reading →

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