Tag Archives: IHME

COVID-19 projections and reality

On 27th April, I posted some short-run projections of COVID-19 cases and deaths. The plots below show how the daily new cases per million population and deaths per million population compare with reality (at least the confirmed case rates and … Continue reading

Posted in Global health trends, Projections | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

COVID-19 short-run projections

Purely statistical predictions of future trends in COVID-19 deaths or cases, even including predictive covariates, have been unable to make sensible forecasts that are not highly sensitive to slight additions of data. The only useful models have been the more … Continue reading

Posted in Global health trends, Projections | Tagged , , , , | 6 Comments

Critics agree that IHME COVID-19 projection model is flawed

I downloaded the latest IHME update of its COVID-19 projections yesterday to do another evaluation. Their projections still look very problematic. Other disease modellers and epidemiologists are coming to the same conclusion. An article just published in Statnews was much … Continue reading

Posted in Global health trends, Projections | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

How useful are IHME projections of the coronavirus pandemic?

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), based at the University of Washington in Seattle, caused considerable alarm on 7 April when it released projections of Covid-19 deaths which predicted total deaths for the UK would be the highest … Continue reading

Posted in Global health trends, Projections | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

WHO and the Global Burden of Disease

As a former WHO staff member, who played a key role in the production and clearance of WHO health statistics over the last 15 years, and a long-time collaborator with the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) enterprise and with the … Continue reading

Posted in Global health trends, World Health Organization | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments

Child mortality continues to decline, but large disparities remain

The United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN-IGME) released new data last week showing that the world has made substantial progress in reducing child mortality in the last several decades. The total number of child deaths has dropped … Continue reading

Posted in Global health trends, World Health Organization | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment