Category Archives: Global health trends

COVID-19 projections and reality

On 27th April, I posted some short-run projections of COVID-19 cases and deaths. The plots below show how the daily new cases per million population and deaths per million population compare with reality (at least the confirmed case rates and … Continue reading

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COVID-19 short-run projections

Purely statistical predictions of future trends in COVID-19 deaths or cases, even including predictive covariates, have been unable to make sensible forecasts that are not highly sensitive to slight additions of data. The only useful models have been the more … Continue reading

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Critics agree that IHME COVID-19 projection model is flawed

I downloaded the latest IHME update of its COVID-19 projections yesterday to do another evaluation. Their projections still look very problematic. Other disease modellers and epidemiologists are coming to the same conclusion. An article just published in Statnews was much … Continue reading

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How useful are IHME projections of the coronavirus pandemic?

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), based at the University of Washington in Seattle, caused considerable alarm on 7 April when it released projections of Covid-19 deaths which predicted total deaths for the UK would be the highest … Continue reading

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How does population age structure affect overall case fatality ratios for COVID-19?

The first graph shows coronavirus deaths in Italy up to 26 March 2020 by sex and age. The overall case fatality rate for lab confirmed cases is 11.1% and 70% of deaths are male (closer to 80% below age 80, … Continue reading

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COVID-19 growth rates by country

Nice new site http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/ that plots time trends in cases and deaths, total numbers and rates per million population. The time axis is days since 100+ cases/deaths or days since 1 case/death per million population. I’ve attached screenshots of cases/million … Continue reading

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Covid-19 update

worldometers.info now also reports coronavirus cases and deaths as rates per million population. I’ve done some updated plots for confirmed case rates, reported death rates, and apparent case fatality rates (CFR). The latter are calculated simply as reported deaths per … Continue reading

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Looking at the COVID-19 statistics on day 3

I live just a couple of kilometres from the border of Switzerland with France, and last Monday evening the border was closed except for frontaliers (who live across the border from work) and those with urgent reasons.  We are now … Continue reading

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Declining freedom in the world

Last week, Freedom House released its 2020 annual report on global freedom. The report documents trends in every region of the world of declining political and civil freedom: “In every region of the world, democracy is under attack by populist … Continue reading

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Gun ownership and gun deaths

Given recent events, I took a look at the data relating to gun deaths overall and the  extraordinarily high rates of mass shootings in the USA compared to the rest of the world. Despite President Trump blaming video games and … Continue reading

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